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Hedge bet calculator
Enter your open bet and the price on the other side now. The calculator shows the equal-profit hedge and the break-even hedge.
Two ways to hedge
- Equal profit: stake enough on the other side that you win the same amount whichever side wins.
- Break-even: stake just enough that, if your original bet loses, the hedge returns your original stake. If the original wins, you keep the rest of the profit.
equal-profit hedge = S × d₁ ÷ d₂; break-even hedge = S ÷ (d₂ − 1)
A hedge is a second bet, so it pays a second margin. It makes sense when the risk matters more to you than the expected value, not as a habit.
Worked example
Worked example: $100 at +300, other side now −200
- Original payout: $100 × 4.00 = $400; hedge odds 1.50
- Equal profit: $400 ÷ 1.50 = $266.67, which nets +$33.33 whichever side wins
- Break-even: $100 ÷ 0.50 = $200, which nets +$100 if your bet wins and $0 if it loses
Hedging locks in a smaller, certain result in place of a bigger, uncertain one.
| Hedge | Stake | If your bet wins | If it loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | $0 | +$300 | −$100 |
| Equal profit | $266.67 | +$33.33 | +$33.33 |
| Break-even | $200.00 | +$100.00 | $0.00 |
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate a hedge bet?
For an equal-profit hedge, divide your potential payout by the hedge’s decimal odds. $400 ÷ 1.50 = $266.67.
Should I hedge a parlay?
Only if the swing matters to you. Hedging trades expected value for certainty, and you pay vig on the hedge.
Can I hedge on Polymarket?
Yes. You can buy the opposite outcome, or simply sell the shares you hold at the current bid, which closes the position without a second bet.
Read the guide: Expected value betting, with worked examples
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