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Hedge bet calculator

Enter your open bet and the price on the other side now. The calculator shows the equal-profit hedge and the break-even hedge.

Hedge calculator illustration

Two ways to hedge

  • Equal profit: stake enough on the other side that you win the same amount whichever side wins.
  • Break-even: stake just enough that, if your original bet loses, the hedge returns your original stake. If the original wins, you keep the rest of the profit.

equal-profit hedge = S × d₁ ÷ d₂; break-even hedge = S ÷ (d₂ − 1)

S is your original stake, d₁ its decimal odds and d₂ the decimal odds on the other side now.

A hedge is a second bet, so it pays a second margin. It makes sense when the risk matters more to you than the expected value, not as a habit.

Worked example

Worked example: $100 at +300, other side now −200

  1. Original payout: $100 × 4.00 = $400; hedge odds 1.50
  2. Equal profit: $400 ÷ 1.50 = $266.67, which nets +$33.33 whichever side wins
  3. Break-even: $100 ÷ 0.50 = $200, which nets +$100 if your bet wins and $0 if it loses

Hedging locks in a smaller, certain result in place of a bigger, uncertain one.

The two hedges side by side
HedgeStakeIf your bet winsIf it loses
None$0+$300−$100
Equal profit$266.67+$33.33+$33.33
Break-even$200.00+$100.00$0.00

Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate a hedge bet?

For an equal-profit hedge, divide your potential payout by the hedge’s decimal odds. $400 ÷ 1.50 = $266.67.

Should I hedge a parlay?

Only if the swing matters to you. Hedging trades expected value for certainty, and you pay vig on the hedge.

Can I hedge on Polymarket?

Yes. You can buy the opposite outcome, or simply sell the shares you hold at the current bid, which closes the position without a second bet.

Read the guide: Expected value betting, with worked examples

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