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How to follow Polymarket sports whales
Arbs research desk · Updated 2026-11-01 · Reviewed 2026-11-01 · 1 min read
The short answer: Every Polymarket trade is public on-chain, so you can see what the biggest sports traders buy. The useful part is not the size of a trade but the record of the wallet behind it: its profit by league and how often it beats the closing price.
Finding them
The sports whale leaderboard ranks wallets by Polymarket sports profit this week, month and all time. Each wallet page shows its record by league, win rate on closed positions, and a sharpness score.
Size is not skill
A large trade can be a hedge, a market maker rebalancing, or someone with more money than edge. Weigh a print by the wallet’s record in that league, not by its dollar size.
| What you see | What it may mean |
|---|---|
| A huge buy of a 95¢ favourite | Parking money for a small, near-certain return |
| Buys on both sides of the same game | Market making or a hedge, not a view |
| Big profit from one or two markets | Possibly luck; check the rest of the record |
| Steady profit across many games in one league | More likely skill, in that league |
| Entries that keep beating the closing price | The strongest sign of an edge |
Following without chasing
By the time you see a big buy, the price has usually moved. Your EV depends on your price, not theirs:
Worked example: A whale buys at 40¢; you see it at 44¢
- Say the fair chance is 45%
- Whale’s cost with the fee: 41.2¢, EV = 0.45 ÷ 0.412 − 1 = +9.2%
- Your cost at 44¢: 45.2¢, EV = 0.45 ÷ 0.4523 − 1
−0.5%. The same view is a good bet at 40¢ and a bad one at 44¢.
- Compare the new price with the model’s fair price before you follow
- A whale’s average entry is not your entry
- Size your follow on your own bankroll, not theirs
Pro accounts get the live whale tape and alerts when wallets they follow trade.
Frequently asked questions
Can I see what Polymarket whales are betting?
Yes. Trades are public on-chain. Arbs collects sports trades, ranks the wallets and shows each one’s record.
Should I copy whale trades?
Treat them as information, not instructions. Check the wallet’s record in that league and whether the price is still good.
Are Polymarket wallets anonymous?
Most are pseudonymous. Some traders link a name or an X account to their profile.